NITI Aayog's new report on growth and net
zero
NITI Aayog has released a set of study reports
outlining India’s development pathways towards achieving the goal of Viksit
Bharat by 2047 while progressing towards Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by
2070.India seeks to achieve a dual objective of developed-economy status
(Viksit Bharat) by 2047 alongside net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2070,
representing a simultaneous growth-and-decarbonisation transition of
unprecedented scale.In this context, NITI Aayog has presented a roadmap, which
highlights that reconciling rapid GDP expansion, energy security, and climate
responsibility is central to India’s long-term policy planning.The study uses a
model-based framework with two core scenarios: a Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
that extends existing policies and trends, and a more ambitious Net Zero
Scenario (NZS) aligned with India’s 2070 Net Zero pledge.The transition is
anchored in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
principles of equity, climate justice, and common but differentiated responsibilities,
and builds on India’s Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)
submitted by India to the UNFCCC in 2022.
Key Findings of the Report
Growth and Development Trajectory
¨
GDP is projected to rise
from USD 4.18 trillion in 2025 to about USD 30 trillion by 2047 across
scenarios, indicating resilience of long-term growth.
¨
Urbanisation is expected
to increase from 37% (2023) to 51% by 2047 and 65% by 2070, driving major
expansion in transport, buildings, and infrastructure.
¨
Net-zero transition has
limited long-term impact on GDP, with variations around 0.5% by 2050 depending
on financing structure.
Energy Transition Pathway
¨
Under the Net Zero
Scenario, India’s energy demand grows modestly (only 2.1–2.6 times between 2025
and 2070) despite an eleven-fold expansion of GDP, driven by efficiency gains,
electrification and circularity.
¨
Electricity becomes the
backbone of the economy, with renewables and nuclear power dominating
generation by mid-century, while fossil fuels shrink to a residual role by
2070.
¨
Electricity’s share of
final energy rises from 21% (2025) to 40% in CPS and 60% in NZS by 2070, driven
by EVs, electric heat, and clean cooking.
¨
Coal demand may rise
until mid-century under current policies before declining sharply in a net-zero
scenario, where residual use is confined to hard-to-abate sectors with carbon
capture.
¨
The primary energy mix
shifts from 87% fossil fuels in 2025 to 54% under CPS and just 14% under NZS by
2070.
Finance and Investment Structure
¨
Achieving Net Zero
requires cumulative investments of about USD 22.7 trillion by 2070, roughly USD
500 billion per year, with the power sector taking over half.
¨
Expected domestic and
external flows could mobilise about USD 16.2 trillion, leaving a financing gap
of around USD 6.5 trillion that must be met largely from international capital.
Critical Minerals and Social Impacts
¨
Demand for critical
energy transition minerals (CETMs) exceeds 110 Mt during 2050–70 under NZS,
about 51% higher than CPS, with EV batteries and solar dominating usage.
¨ Copper and graphite account for nearly two-thirds of cumulative CETM demand by 2070, while India remains heavily import-dependent for lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths.
¨ Net Zero paths generate more jobs overall (about 7 million additional energy-sector jobs by 2050 versus today), but around 17 million workers in fossil-linked manufacturing and 150+ coal-dependent districts face structural disruption.
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