NITI Aayog Releases 6th Edition of ‘Trade Watch Quarterly’ for Q2 FY 2025–26

The Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog formally released the sixth edition of 'Trade Watch Quarterly' for the second quarter of FY 2025-26 (July-September 2025) in New Delhi. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the country's foreign trade trends, export-import situation, and the impact of the global economic scenario.

Trade Watch Quarterly

¨     It is a flagship publication of NITI Aayog that provides a data-driven assessment of global and domestic trade trends, structural shifts, and emerging opportunities for India’s trade policy.

¨     It analyses India’s merchandise and services trade performance in the context of evolving global dynamics such as slowing but positive global trade growth, services-led expansion, and the rising role of developing economies in global trade.

¨     Each edition includes a thematic focus area offering deep sectoral insights.

The Q2 FY26 (July–September 2025) edition focuses on electronics trade, examining:

¨     Global demand trends and India’s export footprint

¨     Participation in global value chains

¨     Structural constraints and policy gaps

¨     Interventions to boost competitiveness, value addition, and exports

The report also provides forward-looking policy insights on areas like export diversification, e-commerce trade potential, Global South trade integration, and value-chain deepening.It serves as a policy resource for government, industry, academia, and researchers to support evidence-based trade strategy and enhance India’s global competitiveness.

Key Findings

Global Trade Context

¨     The report notes that global trade growth moderated in mid-2025 but remained positive, with services outperforming goods.

¨     Growth was driven by higher prices and stronger performance in developing regions such as East Asia and Africa.

¨     Against this backdrop, India’s total merchandise and services trade grew by around 5.1% year-on-year during April–September 2025, with exports rising faster than imports, supported by robust services growth and select merchandise categories.

India’s Trade Performance

¨     India’s export momentum sustained overall trade expansion despite global uncertainty.

¨     Services and merchandise exports recorded strong growth.

¨     Merchandise exports were led by electrical machinery, mineral fuels, cereals, automobiles, and precious stones.

¨     Smartphones, non-basmati rice, and passenger vehicles emerged as key growth drivers.

¨     Imports remained dominated by mineral fuels, electronics, precious stones, and fertilisers.

¨     India recorded strong export growth to markets such as Hong Kong, China, the UAE, and the US, though ASEAN showed some moderation.

¨     A key structural trend highlighted is the deepening of trade among developing economies, which has expanded nearly fourfold since 2005.

¨     India’s trade trajectory is increasingly aligned with this Global South rebalancing through regional value chains and new trade corridors.

Rise of E-commerce in Trade

¨     The report underscores the growing role of e-commerce as a key enabler of future export growth.

¨     India is among the world’s top six e-commerce markets, with electronics accounting for a large share of online retail.

¨     Although e-commerce exports remain modest, they are projected to scale rapidly.

¨     They could contribute 20–30% of India’s merchandise exports by 2030, supported by improvements in logistics efficiency, regulatory facilitation, and expanding MSME participation.

Electronics as the Thematic Focus

¨     Electronics has emerged as a cornerstone of India’s manufacturing and export transformation and is now the second-largest item in India’s export basket.

¨     India’s share in global electronics demand has grown rapidly, driven largely by mobile phone exports.

¨ Electronics exports have expanded significantly over the past decade, with strong performance in mobile phones, consumer electronics, and communication equipment.

¨     Major export markets include the United States, the United Kingdom, and the UAE.

¨     The sector is deeply interconnected with industries such as automotive, renewable energy, telecom, defence, and digital services, making it a powerful multiplier for industrial growth.